100NL: Top 2 Pair vs. Nit

Villain here is pretty nitty @ 19/16.
My question is - how nitty does someone need to be in order for me to NOT value bet this river?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($103)
UTG+1 ($100)
CO ($203)
BTN ($126)
SB ($168)
BB ($146)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is UTG A K
Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: 2 A K ($8.50, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7

Turn: 6 ($22.50, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16, BB calls $16

River: 7 ($54.50, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

19/16 is not THAT nitty. fire away

it he were like 12/xx then sure, think about it, but still fire

You have to value bet here against almost any player because you have a very stong hand and only 100bb. On the second tought I think you have to VB always and against everyone, if you are very very deep you can bet fold against superhuge nits, and bet call against players who are capable of huge CR river bluffs.

River: 7 ($54.50, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $25, BB goes all-in $119, Hero FFFUUU

I hate your 1/2 VB on the river (and I noticed you have these bets that put you in tough spots if raised, either with air or as a VB).

This is an ugly spot, I agree, and what this raise screams to me is fluuuushhhhh. It's $51 to you (if i got this right) and you are most likely not getting bluffed ;(

I agree on my bet sizing. It's my leak of the month for November. Any tips on how I can fix this? Is betting more and then calling it off really better here?

It is, because by betting more you are getting more for when your hand holds up.

He either has AQdd or AJdd or air imo, not sure how often if ever someone bluffs here. I guess maybe he has AK or 22 sometimes as well, that really depends on villain.

I'd have just bet/called off $42 or maybeeeeeeeeee overbet jam if he was a good reg and his range is basically AQ/AJs on the river. $25 doesn't even make sense I have no idea why you'd be that maybe write down ur thoughts so we can see what is up yo.

My thoughts are he is a nit and will fold to a bigger vbet with AQ/AJ

I didn't think about what he would value CR with that I'm still ahead of

But would you actually shove the river if you had T9dd? If you would then that's fine and VB away, if not I would try to get value by betting very big when you have it.

Big Value Bets are much more profitable in the long run, you get extra value when he has AQ, AJ and also you add some extra place for 3 bullet bluffs.

If you Vb only 25 you give him better odds to call with weaker hands but also you put yourself in tough places when you want to bluff with third bullet because u did it in a different way