100NL: River CRAI bluff in 3B pot

Villain is 22/14 over 40 hands

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($204)
UTG+1 ($128)
CO ($329)
BTN ($112)
Hero ($122)
BB ($100)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB A K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $11, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $8

Flop: Q 3 5 ($23, 2 players)
Hero bets $13, UTG+1 calls $13

Turn: 10 ($49, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: 3 ($49, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $23.27, Hero goes all-in $98.07

I think its not bad spot to represent QQ or A flush, he probably has a pair JJ,99-88, KQ or AQ( less likely because of a check on the turn), maybe flush(unlikely) or air..He cant have a nuts flush, and K flush is possible but less likely..He would probably bet 1010 on the turn..The biggest problem here are odds..He have to call 75 for 172, so he needs less then 30% WP to call profitable here..Will he fold less then Q here..Probably..

It doesn't make sense for him to bet anything other than a Q on the river and I doubt a Q folds. Maybe he bets JJ sometimes but I have a hard time believing he'll bet/fold it.

This is probably fine in theory (though turn should most likley be 2-barreled if we're talking theory) but really bad in practice.

Also bet the flop more so you can bet/call that off comfortably on the turn and reduce the times he floats.

I think he would probably bets Q on the turn, and after we check on the turn and river he bets J more often(many players would). True, he rarly bets 99-88 here, but somethimes he turns maid hand in the bluff because of a possible flush that came.. He can have air too..So, I dont belive he bets just Q on the river, and its not impossible that he folds Q on the river CR..
Puting together its a close, risky but not bad spot to bluff, for me

I think it's pretty bad spot for bluffing, if you had anything worth some money You should (and probably would) bet turn and river, the only good thing is that you know he has no nuts, but with these odds call with any showdown value is profitable ..... eventhough, I believe that villain is passive fish (I know because I am) and that you got spanked with hand like KJ clubs or any suited connectors in clubs

Nice read. He had KJcc