100NL: Double barrel in squeezed pot

At the time I felt this was 100% correct since he calls 1 with all medium pairs then folds the turn. Let me know if this is correct thinking.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO PasyaDD ($102.68)
BTN eddieLL87 ($115.32)
SB jordo7672 ($111.86)
BB Hero ($264.28)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 4 players) Hero is BB A J
PasyaDD raises to $4, eddieLL87 calls $4, jordo7672 calls $3.50, Hero raises to $20, PasyaDD folds, eddieLL87 calls $16, jordo7672 folds

Flop: K 7 8 ($48, 2 players)
Hero bets $25, eddieLL87 calls $25

Turn: 5 ($98, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $219.28

I think most everyone will put you on a draw and call getting 3:1.

Pf and flop look good though.

Well I'm effectively betting $70 on the turn into a $100 pot since villain is 115BB deep so not quite 3:1 (more like 2.4:1) and I think the chance that he's on a draw or has 99-QQ is pretty high so I have pretty good FE here.

Why wouldn't he ship a draw on the flop?

QQ usually jams PF.
JJ has half of the combos removed by your JJ.
TT you probably fold out.
99 has a gutterball.

Risking $70 to win $170 is just really hard to make fold IMO, even if there aren't a lot of kings in his range. I also imagine he slowplays 77-88 almost always on the flop.

It's not terrible if you jam here and I'm guessing by the tone of your post you got the fold, but with so many hands having so much equity I really doubt it's +EV to bluff with very close to the worst possible hand you can have. I think blocking the J when you're basically trying to fold out TT-JJ (and I'll agree his range is narrow) really sucks.

I'm interested and you see intrigued by this hand and maths in general, so figure out how often you'd need to have a bluff or draw here in order to allow him to call with 99 and post it? 99 has 13.6% equity against a higher pair, figure out how much equity it has on average against your typical bluff here (which may very will include a hand like 76 or A6) and please to be posting.

If I've already shoved the turn then it's $70 for him to win a $170 pot. He needs 30% to break-even here. Going by your initial assessment that 99 has 13.6% equity vs. a higher pair then if I'm bluffing more than 17% of the time he can call. How you would ever do this type of math in practicality (or even estimate it) I have no idea... so I'm still not convince that solving all these equations will actually help us get better at poker.

If we look at it from my POV, I'm risking $70 to win $100. So I need to win 41% to break-even (let's combine our pot-equity and fold-equity).

Pot-Equity (PE) vs. his calling range: 16%
{ 88-77, KQs, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d } --> 1.4% of hands pre-flop
We'll assume he jams all NFD as well as TPTK if for some reason he slowplayed AK pre-flop.

Folding-Equity range:
{ QQ, JcJd, JcJh, JdJh, TT-99 } --> 1.6% of hands pre-flop
So to calculate my fold-equity it's basically 1.6/(1.6+1.4)=53%

So 53% of the time he folds and I win $100 = $53
And 47% of the time he calls and I win $170 16% of the time = $27
Total = $53+$27 = $80

I'm risking $70 to win $80, it's thin, but +EV

btw and lol that he used his entire time bank before calling

Turn: 5 ($98, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $219.28, eddieLL87 goes all-in $70.32

River: 2 ($387.60, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $387.60
eddieLL87 shows
K A
Hero shows
A J

I cant see him folding QQ on that board.

I do think there is something to be said about the differences between stakes/sites.... so while QQ might be in a snap in the sites/games we play I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility our Canadian friend is right.

We also would squeeze QQ PF 100% of the time I imagine due to there being almost 50bb in the pot once we call.

That said he's still randomizing with about the worst possible hand he can have, which is pretty relevant for how often he's going to get called.