u holdemu se traze dvije karte od 52, dakle ukupno ima (52)(51)/2 kombinacija, to je tocno 1326 kombinacija razlicitih karata, od tih 1326 kombinacija ima 6 kombinacija Aseva
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dakle vjerovatnost da se dobije AA je 6/1326 ili 1/221
-ako se dijeli samo jedna ruka imas vjerovatnost da ces dobit aseve (1/221)
to je u procentima oko 0,4524%
-ako se dijele tocno tri ruke i da ces u sve tri ruke dobit aseve vjerovatnost je
(1/221)^3 a to je (1/10793861)
Sad ako uzmemo u obzir da ce se dijelit 1000 ili vise ruku ta vjerovatnost dođe u obzir samo na pocetku dakle u prve tri ili zadnje tri ruke,
ako zelimo vjerovatnost da ce se podjelit trije pocket asevi u nekom uzorcu recimo 1000 hendova evo vam na citanje copy paste iz nekog foruma( ove aproksimacije su bile pain in the ass u srednjoj ali recimo da je ovo kolko tolko razumljivo)
If you want the probability of it happening in 1000 hands, use this method:
Let P(n) be the probability of a sequence of 3 AA in a row by the nth hand. Then:
P(1) = 0
P(2) = 0
P(3) = (1/221)^3
P(4) = P(3) + (220/221)*(1/221)^3
P(n) = P(n-1) + [1 - P(n-4)]*(220/221)*(1/221)^3 for n > 4
P(1000) =~ 1 in 10,865.
That is, the probability that it happens in n hands is the probability that it happens in n-1 hands plus the probability that it happens first on the nth hand. To happen first on the nth hand, it must not happen by hand n-4, then we must not get AA on hand n-3 with probability 220/221, followed by 3 pairs in a row with probability (1/221)^3. This can be computed in a single column in Excel.
This can also be done with matrix multiplication as a Markov process.
Of course you can appromimate this result by simply multiplying (1/221)^3 by 998 trials. It's actually less than 998 trials, because some trials last more than 1 hand. The average length of a trial is 1 + 1/221 + 1/221^2, so the average number of trials is 998/(1 + 1/221 + 1/221^2), which when multiplied by that useless number (1/221)^3 gives 1 in 10,865, same as the exact answer to the nearest integer. This method is an approximation in general because it could happen more than once, but the probability of that here is small.