Get CRed Deep vs good villain on drawy board (NL$200)

Villain is 25/19 over a decent sample and seems like a winner.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ship heart ($793.10)
CO Raul Paez ($225)
BTN Hero ($364.65)
SB Yongsuk Chang ($201)
BB sharpia1 ($328.75)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BTN
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, sharpia1 calls $5

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
sharpia1 checks, Hero bets $12, sharpia1 raises to $32, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($79, 2 players)
sharpia1 bets $48, Hero calls $48

River: ($175, 2 players)
sharpia1 bets $128

You called/shoved the river and it's not even close. Because if you didn't call the river and you considered the stacks, the ranges and possibilities on flop then you burned some money. That's not to say that I would be in the hand by the time river hits, cause I probably wouldn't be in here fully expecting the turn and river bets by villain.

Your hand is most likely not good here against a solid player but river shove might change the tide although I doubt it.

I'm a bit confused to what you're saying. Are you recommending checking back flop or folding the flop or turn, or jamming the river as a bluff?

lol. Basically, folding the flop because otherwise you know you will be facing the turn or river bet and your hand is not good enough to withstand 3 barrels unless you think it's missed overs or missed flush draw and you gogogo for it.

I would be interested to see your data from HEM when you filter for top pair hands that get raised or check raised on flop.

I had to reformat my computer because I locked myself out of my C-drive when trying to secure my computer, so I have no database. I am terrible at computers so I tried to do it with the help of Bdon and still fail.

I don't think the stat would be too useful anyways though because if I fold I don't break even, I still lose $19 cash money on the hand so I could be down a lot but I'd be down less than if I folded all the flops.

Ok. Then what happens when you raise PF and flop TP. Maybe that would be more interesting, but we won't find that out unfortunately ;(

I rarely fold if he's a regular, and I often fold if he's not and my kicker is not good.

Depends way too much on positions and board textures to go into any real detail though.

This might sound dumb but I think minraising the turn here might buy us a cheap showdown.

If he ships it then we were in bad shape anyway and it's better than facing that $128 river bet if there's a chance he'll now check.

And helping ppl with windows vista problems is a negative freeroll

His river bet pretty much polarizes him. Given the stacks and the possibility of your jamming, he is unlikely making a thin valuebet with something like 88, 99, TT.

So I put him on QQ, KK, AA, set or a missed flush/ staright/ random bluff. Since QQ, KK, AA are very rarely just called form BB, and sets are also very rare I start to consider calling.

Since you are deep and you might be calling those flop and turn bets with gutshots, gutshots and pairs, and every kind of staff - he might be trying a bluff.

I think If you feel he doesnt realise he is polarized when betting that river, than call, and if you feel he is aware of that - than call ocasionally.

And if despite everything he isnt polarised in spots like this, then fold.


But that so much depends on felling and frequency.

Looking at this again his line doesn't make sense if you work it out backwards.

How did the Q help him? He can't be CR'ing 77 on that flop can he?

So does he have 22/33 here or possibly 54s if he even defends those hands from the blinds? All unlikely hands imo and I don't think he bets river with 88-TT so I'm smelling missed clubs here a lot, or something like KQ that was trying to bluff then spiked a Q on the river (not even sure if he bets that though).

Tell me if my logic is flawed, it's late and I'm tired but I just want to put my thoughts out there.

Basically my thoughts are the same as Martini's. His range should be really polarized and I imagine he realizes it. The fact the turn brings two flush draws I think it pretty relevant too because he should be CR bluffing a decent amount with backdoor hearts, which have to fire the turn.

The Q is a really good bluff card, but it can definitely hit him as well. I would play ever street the same if I have KQhh or KJhh or something, so on the river I think his range is 22/33/45/Qx/bluff which I thought was a narrow enough range to justify a call, so I did. The fact we are deep increases the odds of him flatting 22 and 33 pf imo. I don't think he ever has QQ/KK/AA.

And results?

45cc he flops good.